Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5, while Villarreal have won 3 of their last 5. Liverpool average 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Villarreal average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. Our model expects Liverpool to score about 1.7 and Villarreal about 1.4. Villarreal should avoid losing by two goals or more.