Arbroath vs Greenock Morton prediction

Arbroath have lost 3 of their last 5, while Greenock Morton have not won in their last 5. Arbroath average 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Greenock Morton average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Arbroath won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 to Greenock Morton, with 2.7 goals a game. Our model expects Arbroath to score about 1.5 and Greenock Morton about 0.9. We expect only around 2.3 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.