Derby County vs Stoke City prediction

Derby County have not won in their last 5, while Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5. Derby County average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Stoke City average 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Derby County won 2-0 against Stoke City. Our model expects Derby County to score about 1.4 and Stoke City about 1.4. We expect around 2.7 goals in total, so goals look likely.