Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction

Valencia have lost 3 of their last 5, while Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 5. Valencia average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Athletic Club average 1.9 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Valencia won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Athletic Club, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Valencia to score about 1.1 and Athletic Club about 1.4. Valencia should avoid losing by two goals or more.