Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle prediction

Stevenage have won 4 of their last 5, while Plymouth Argyle have won 3 of their last 5. Stevenage average 1.1 scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Plymouth Argyle average 2.2 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Stevenage won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Plymouth Argyle, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Stevenage to score about 1.3 and Plymouth Argyle about 1.5. Stevenage should avoid losing by two goals or more.