Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction

Augsburg have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Union Berlin have lost 3 of their last 5. Augsburg average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Union Berlin average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Augsburg won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Union Berlin, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Augsburg to score about 2.3 and Union Berlin about 1.3. Augsburg should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.