Metropolitanos vs Portuguesa prediction

Metropolitanos are unbeaten in their last 5, while Portuguesa have taken 5 points from their last 5. Metropolitanos average 2.0 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Portuguesa average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Metropolitanos won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Portuguesa, with 4.5 goals a game. Our model expects Metropolitanos to score about 1.8 and Portuguesa about 0.9. Metropolitanos should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.