Ajax vs AZ prediction

Ajax have won 3 of their last 5, while AZ have taken 7 points from their last 5. Ajax average 2.1 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while AZ average 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Ajax drew 1-1 against AZ. Our model expects Ajax to score about 1.8 and AZ about 1.4. We expect only around 3.2 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.