Moreirense vs Estrela prediction

Moreirense have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Estrela have lost 3 of their last 5. Moreirense average 1.1 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Estrela average 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Moreirense won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Estrela, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Moreirense to score about 1.6 and Estrela about 1.3. We expect only around 2.9 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.