Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction

Chapecoense have lost 4 of their last 5, while Mirassol have taken 5 points from their last 5. Chapecoense average 1.4 scored and 2.3 conceded at home, while Mirassol average 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Chapecoense drew 1-1 against Mirassol. Our model expects Chapecoense to score about 1.2 and Mirassol about 1.3. We expect only around 2.5 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.