Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta prediction

Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5, while Deportivo Recoleta have taken 7 points from their last 5. Olimpia average 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Deportivo Recoleta average 1.1 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Olimpia won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 to Deportivo Recoleta, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Olimpia to score about 1.9 and Deportivo Recoleta about 0.8. Olimpia should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.