Al Ahli vs Al Taawoun prediction

Al Ahli have won 3 of their last 5, while Al Taawoun have taken 5 points from their last 5. Al Ahli average 2.7 scored and 0.6 conceded at home, while Al Taawoun average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. When they last met, Al Ahli won 2-1 against Al Taawoun. Our model expects Al Ahli to score about 2.1 and Al Taawoun about 0.9. Al Ahli should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.