Arbroath vs Ayr United prediction

Arbroath have lost 4 of their last 5, while Ayr United have won 3 of their last 5. Arbroath average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Ayr United average 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Arbroath won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 to Ayr United, with 1.7 goals a game. Our model expects Arbroath to score about 1.0 and Ayr United about 1.3. Arbroath should avoid losing by two goals or more.