Birmingham City vs Swansea City prediction

Birmingham City have won 4 of their last 5, while Swansea City have lost 3 of their last 5. Birmingham City average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Swansea City average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Birmingham City won 1, drew 1 and lost 0 to Swansea City, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Birmingham City to score about 1.7 and Swansea City about 0.9. Birmingham City should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.