Libertad (Ecuador) vs Emelec prediction

Libertad (Ecuador) have won 3 of their last 5, while Emelec have lost 4 of their last 5. Libertad (Ecuador) average 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Emelec average 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Libertad (Ecuador) won 1, drew 2 and lost 0 to Emelec, with 2.3 goals a game. Our model expects Libertad (Ecuador) to score about 1.6 and Emelec about 0.9. Libertad (Ecuador) should be hard to beat here.