UPNFM vs FC Motagua prediction

UPNFM have won 3 of their last 5, while FC Motagua have won 3 of their last 5. UPNFM average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while FC Motagua average 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings UPNFM won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 to FC Motagua, with 3.3 goals a game. Our model expects UPNFM to score about 1.0 and FC Motagua about 1.3. UPNFM should avoid losing by two goals or more.