Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction

Manchester United have lost 3 of their last 5, while Aston Villa have taken 7 points from their last 5. Manchester United average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Aston Villa average 1.4 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Manchester United won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Aston Villa, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects Manchester United to score about 1.5 and Aston Villa about 1.4. Manchester United should avoid losing by two goals or more.