Toluca vs Monterrey prediction

Toluca have not won in their last 5, while Monterrey have taken 8 points from their last 5. Toluca average 2.3 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Monterrey average 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Toluca won 2, drew 0 and lost 1 to Monterrey, with 2.3 goals a game. Our model expects Toluca to score about 1.9 and Monterrey about 1.4. Monterrey should find the net, with about 1.4 goals expected from them.