Tractor vs Neftchi Fergana

Tractor have lost 3 of their last 5, while Neftchi Fergana have lost 2 of their last 3. Tractor average 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded at home. Our model expects Tractor to score about 1.3 and Neftchi Fergana about 1.1. Neftchi Fergana should avoid losing by two goals or more.