Troyes vs Marseille prediction

Troyes have lost 3 of their last 5, while Marseille have not won in their last 5. Troyes average 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded at home, while Marseille average 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. Our model expects Troyes to score about 1.6 and Marseille about 1.2. We expect only around 2.8 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.