Iceland vs Croatia prediction

Iceland have won 3 of their last 5, while Croatia have won 4 of their last 5. Iceland average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Croatia average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded away from home. When they last met, Iceland won 4-0 against Croatia. Our model expects Iceland to score about 1.6 and Croatia about 1.2. We expect only around 2.8 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.