Italy vs Belarus prediction

Italy are unbeaten in their last 5, while Belarus have won 3 of their last 5. Italy average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Belarus average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded away from home. When they last met, Italy won 2-0 against Belarus. Our model expects Italy to score about 1.5 and Belarus about 1.1. Belarus should at least avoid defeat.