Sweden vs Lithuania prediction

Sweden have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Lithuania have taken 7 points from their last 5. Sweden average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Lithuania average 2.3 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home. When they last met, Sweden won 5-0 against Lithuania. Our model expects Sweden to score about 1.8 and Lithuania about 1.2. We expect only around 2.9 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.