Wales vs Albania prediction

Wales are unbeaten in their last 5, while Albania have lost 3 of their last 5. Wales average 3.2 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Albania average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Wales won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 to Albania, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Wales to score about 1.5 and Albania about 1.0. We expect only around 2.5 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.