Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction

Heerenveen have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Excelsior have taken 5 points from their last 5. Heerenveen average 1.9 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Excelsior average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Heerenveen won 2, drew 0 and lost 0 to Excelsior, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Heerenveen to score about 1.5 and Excelsior about 1.6. Excelsior should at least avoid defeat.