Everton vs Chelsea prediction

Everton are unbeaten in their last 5, while Chelsea have taken 7 points from their last 5. Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Chelsea average 2.0 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Everton won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Chelsea, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Everton to score about 1.9 and Chelsea about 1.4. Everton should avoid losing by two goals or more.