Jaro vs Mariehamn prediction

Jaro have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Mariehamn have taken 7 points from their last 5. Jaro average 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Mariehamn average 0.8 scored and 2.3 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Jaro won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 to Mariehamn, with 3.3 goals a game. Our model expects Jaro to score about 1.4 and Mariehamn about 1.1. Mariehamn should avoid losing by two goals or more.