Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Alverca have won 3 of their last 5, while Arouca have taken 8 points from their last 5. Alverca average 1.2 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Arouca average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Alverca won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Arouca, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Alverca to score about 1.4 and Arouca about 1.1. Arouca may struggle in front of goal, with only about 1.1 goals expected from them.