Gil Vicente vs Porto prediction

Gil Vicente have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Porto have won 3 of their last 5. Gil Vicente average 1.5 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Porto average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Gil Vicente won 1, drew 0 and lost 2 to Porto, with 2.0 goals a game. Our model expects Gil Vicente to score about 1.1 and Porto about 1.3. Gil Vicente should avoid losing by two goals or more.