Arsenal vs Everton prediction

Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5, while Everton have taken 8 points from their last 5. Arsenal average 1.9 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home. When they last met, Arsenal won 2-0 against Everton. Our model expects Arsenal to score about 1.5 and Everton about 0.9. Everton should avoid losing by two goals or more.