Köln vs Union Berlin prediction

Köln have lost 3 of their last 5, while Union Berlin have lost 3 of their last 5. Köln average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, while Union Berlin average 1.5 scored and 2.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Köln won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Union Berlin, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Köln to score about 1.8 and Union Berlin about 1.2. We expect only around 3.0 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.