Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Alianza Atlético have lost 3 of their last 5, while Deportivo Garcilaso have lost 3 of their last 5. Alianza Atlético average 1.5 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Deportivo Garcilaso average 0.5 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Alianza Atlético won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Deportivo Garcilaso, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Alianza Atlético to score about 1.7 and Deportivo Garcilaso about 1.5. Deportivo Garcilaso should avoid losing by two goals or more.