Emelec vs Leones prediction

Emelec have lost 4 of their last 5, while Leones have lost 3 of their last 5. Emelec average 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Leones average 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Emelec won 2, drew 0 and lost 1 to Leones, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Emelec to score about 1.4 and Leones about 1.1. Leones should avoid losing by two goals or more.