Macará vs Barcelona prediction

Macará are unbeaten in their last 5, while Barcelona have lost 4 of their last 5. Macará average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Barcelona average 0.4 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Macará won 2, drew 0 and lost 0 to Barcelona, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects Macará to score about 1.6 and Barcelona about 0.9. Macará should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.