MVV Maastricht vs VVV-Venlo prediction

MVV Maastricht have lost 3 of their last 5, while VVV-Venlo have won 3 of their last 5. MVV Maastricht average 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded at home, while VVV-Venlo average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. When they last met, MVV Maastricht won 2-1 against VVV-Venlo. Our model expects MVV Maastricht to score about 1.5 and VVV-Venlo about 2.4. VVV-Venlo should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.