Peñarol vs Montevideo Wanderers prediction

Peñarol have taken 6 points from their last 5, while Montevideo Wanderers have lost 3 of their last 5. Peñarol average 1.7 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Montevideo Wanderers average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Peñarol won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Montevideo Wanderers, with 3.5 goals a game. Our model expects Peñarol to score about 1.7 and Montevideo Wanderers about 0.8. Peñarol should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.