Racing (Montevideo) vs Cerro Largo prediction

Racing (Montevideo) have lost 3 of their last 5, while Cerro Largo have lost 3 of their last 5. Racing (Montevideo) average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded at home, while Cerro Largo average 0.7 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Racing (Montevideo) won 2, drew 0 and lost 0 to Cerro Largo, with 1.0 goals a game. Our model expects Racing (Montevideo) to score about 1.4 and Cerro Largo about 0.7. Racing (Montevideo) should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.