Udinese vs Roma prediction

Udinese have not won in their last 5, while Roma have won 3 of their last 5. Udinese average 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Roma average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Udinese won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Roma, with 1.5 goals a game. Our model expects Udinese to score about 1.2 and Roma about 2.0. Roma should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.