Club América vs Toluca prediction

Club América have taken 8 points from their last 5, while Toluca have not won in their last 5. Club América average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Toluca average 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Club América won 1, drew 0 and lost 1 to Toluca, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Club América to score about 1.9 and Toluca about 1.6. Toluca should avoid losing by two goals or more.