Cancún vs Jaiba Brava prediction

Cancún have taken 8 points from their last 5, while Jaiba Brava have lost 3 of their last 5. Cancún average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Jaiba Brava average 0.9 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Cancún won 0, drew 1 and lost 2 to Jaiba Brava, with 2.7 goals a game. Our model expects Cancún to score about 1.9 and Jaiba Brava about 1.0. Cancún should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.