Lazio vs Cagliari prediction

Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5, while Cagliari have lost 3 of their last 5. Lazio average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded at home, while Cagliari average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home. When they last met, Lazio drew 0-0 against Cagliari. Our model expects Lazio to score about 1.9 and Cagliari about 0.9. Lazio should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.