Progreso vs Defensor Sporting prediction

Progreso have won 3 of their last 5, while Defensor Sporting have lost 3 of their last 5. Progreso average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Defensor Sporting average 0.7 scored and 1.2 conceded away from home. When they last met, Progreso lost 0-1 against Defensor Sporting. Our model expects Progreso to score about 1.5 and Defensor Sporting about 1.1. Defensor Sporting should avoid losing by two goals or more.