Universidad Católica (Quito) vs Aucas prediction

Universidad Católica (Quito) have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Aucas have not won in their last 5. Universidad Católica (Quito) average 2.3 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Aucas average 0.9 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home. In their last 2 meetings Universidad Católica (Quito) won 0, drew 1 and lost 1 to Aucas, with 2.5 goals a game. Our model expects Universidad Católica (Quito) to score about 1.4 and Aucas about 0.9. Aucas should avoid losing by two goals or more.