Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction

Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 5, while Bahia have taken 7 points from their last 5. Cruzeiro average 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, while Bahia average 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. When they last met, Cruzeiro won 2-1 against Bahia. Our model expects Cruzeiro to score about 1.8 and Bahia about 1.1. We expect only around 2.9 goals in total, so a tight, low-scoring game looks likely.