Penybont vs Caernarfon Town prediction

Penybont have won 4 of their last 5, while Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5. Penybont average 1.1 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Caernarfon Town average 1.9 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home. In their last 4 meetings Penybont won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 to Caernarfon Town, with 1.8 goals a game. Our model expects Penybont to score about 1.7 and Caernarfon Town about 1.6. Caernarfon Town should find the net, with about 1.6 goals expected from them.