Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Alverca have won 3 of their last 5, while Casa Pia have lost 3 of their last 5. Alverca average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Casa Pia average 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Alverca won 3, drew 0 and lost 0 to Casa Pia, with 2.3 goals a game. Our model expects Alverca to score about 1.3 and Casa Pia about 0.9. Casa Pia should avoid losing by two goals or more.