Elgin City vs Dumbarton prediction

Elgin City have taken 7 points from their last 5, while Dumbarton have lost 3 of their last 5. Elgin City average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Dumbarton average 0.8 scored and 2.7 conceded away from home. In their last 3 meetings Elgin City won 0, drew 2 and lost 1 to Dumbarton, with 3.0 goals a game. Our model expects Elgin City to score about 2.1 and Dumbarton about 1.1. Elgin City should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.