Philadelphia Union vs Toronto prediction

Philadelphia Union have taken 5 points from their last 5, while Toronto have taken 7 points from their last 5. Philadelphia Union average 1.8 scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Toronto average 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home. When they last met, Philadelphia Union drew 3-3 against Toronto. Our model expects Philadelphia Union to score about 2.3 and Toronto about 1.3. Philadelphia Union should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.