Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction

Freiburg have lost 3 of their last 5, while Union Berlin have taken 6 points from their last 5. Freiburg average 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Union Berlin average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded away from home. When they last met, Freiburg lost 0-1 against Union Berlin. Our model expects Freiburg to score about 2.2 and Union Berlin about 1.0. Freiburg should win this, and a draw only returns the stake.