Watford vs Burnley prediction

Watford have lost 4 of their last 5, while Burnley have not won in their last 5. Watford average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, while Burnley average 0.9 scored and 2.2 conceded away from home. Our model expects Watford to score about 1.4 and Burnley about 1.1. Burnley should at least avoid defeat.